The Fallacy of Measuring the Price of Oil with Numbers

We humans seem to have a thing for numerical milestones. Each year that a person spends on this planet warrants a celebration, especially if it's their 1st, 16th, 21st, 30th, (40th?) or 100th birthday. In 1976, the U.S. Treasury was so eager to commemorate the 200th anniversary of the day the Second Continental Congress told the Brits to go wank off with a moldy crumpet that they minted a special quarter (many of which I used to buy large quantities of SweetTarts, sometimes in conjunction with a $2 bill). And, earlier this year, a collective gasp was heard from sea to shining sea as the price of crude oil topped $100/barrel.

Now, apart from the related bigger-picture issues -- e.g., the fact that $100/barrel oil indicates that our energy policy / priorities are out of whack, that the dollar is falling, etc. -- there really isn't any reason why this event is newsworthy per se. Think about it: if we had a base-16 counting system, that ominous $100/barrel mark would instead be a relatively unimportant-looking $64/barrel, and we'd be waiting until oil hit two hundred fifty-six decimal dollars before stopping the presses and sounding the panic alarms.

The interesting part is that, in spite of our affinity for base-10 and milestones that are multiples of 5 or 10, now that we're past $100/barrel, the media are not waiting around until it hits $200 or even $150 before once again going shock-and-awe with the doom-and-gloom. Indeed, it seems like every day, your morning newspaper(.com)'s front page blares something to the effect of:

CRUDE OIL PASSES $102/BARREL

OIL TOPS OUT AT A RECORD $104.36/BARREL!!

SKYROCKETING OIL PRICES SURPASS $107/BARREL!!! OH NO!!!

These headlines are especially bizarre given the fact that, unless we as a species can collectively kick the oil habit (and given the rate of growth in the developing world, that's not going to be anytime soon), the price of oil is always going to go up over time. That is to say that, in terms of their efficacy in conveying useful information about the state of the world, these headlines are functionally equivalent to this one:

TIME SETS ANOTHER RECORD FOR THE NUMBER OF SECONDS THAT HAVE ELAPSED SINCE THE BEGINNING OF THE UNIVERSE

In a couple of years, our current per-barrel price of $124 (or $7C hex), will seem like a steal. Even now, as Americans complain about paying $3.50/gallon for gas at the pump (or, in the case of the Captain's diesel-powered Indigo Mystery Ship, $4.50/gallon), much of the rest of the world (including our friends across the Atlantic who pay $9/gallon) has erupted into fits of melancholy laughter.

So, rather than wasting our energy (actual and metaphorical) lamenting the fact that oil has entered the realm of triple-digits (at least in base-10) -- and will likely stay there forever more -- how about if we instead focus on finding more innovative, affordable, and scalable ways to power our cars, planes, and 60" plasma TVs? And hey, if the numbers still make you nervous, just fire up calc.exe and switch it to Hex mode. You'll feel better.